A Hamas security member stands guard at an internationally-funded water treatment plant in the northern Gaza Strip town of Beit Lahiya. (Wissam Nassar, Maan Images)

What a contrast. In western Europe Obama-mania is in full flood, epitomised by raving crowds in Berlin last night as well as the polls which show the Democratic candidate to be far more popular than John McCain in almost every country. In Israel he is met with apprehension, and in the Palestinian territories there is only the faintest hope that the deadlocked conflict will ever end.

The difference is that Europeans know the American president holds the keys to war or peace. He has enormous influence in dragging European governments after him, as the disastrous Iraq adventure showed. So it is not surprising that many Europeans are crying out for a man in the White House who will be less aggressive, less unilateral, less imperial, and more attuned to the complexities of international policy. Obama seems to be the one.

In the Middle East the US leader has much less power. Israel calls the shots, and what's happening on the ground is deeply gloomy and anti-peace. The chances of creating a viable Palestinian state have almost vanished as Israeli settlements on the West Bank go on increasing and yet more checkpoints appear.

No wonder that, while they like Obama more than McCain, Palestinians feel little optimism. "Obama might create a different atmosphere," says Yasser Abed Rabo, the secretary general of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, stressing the "might". "Bush polarised things between him and Osama bin Laden. The moderates were the big losers. People in the middle felt crushed," he argues.

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Others expect Obama will take time to focus on the Middle East in spite of his promise this week to be engaged in peace from day one. "He'll concentrate first on Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and the economy, which all matter more for Americans," an adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team told me.

His visit to the Israeli border town of Sderot was one-sided, not just because he did not balance it with visits to places where Palestinians are oppressed. Sderot is more than a place under threat of terror. It is a model for how ceasefires are negotiable, and why they are the vital first step towards any serious peace agreement. Yet Obama ignored the point.

"Why have a ceasefire in Gaza, but not one in the West Bank? Do they want us to develop missiles and rockets here before we can have a ceasefire?" asks Mustafa Barghouti, one of the most respected independents in the Palestinian parliament. He points to the spate of arrests by Israeli troops in recent weeks in Nablus, Hebron and Jenin, which have gone virtually unreported. The Israelis conduct almost nightly raids on schools, clinics and charities, seizing files, computers, and patients' records.

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