BACKGROUND

Newly elected Kadima party leader Tzipi Livni is currently involved in negotiations aimed at the formation of a coalition government. (Maan Images)

Israel's ruling Kadima party held leadership elections on September 17, 2008 to select a new party chairman, and elected Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to lead the party.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is currently involved in two separate corruption scandals, has formally submitted his resignation to President Shimon Peres, and Livni has now been tasked with forming a coalition government, and has 42 days in which to do so.

If Livni is unable to form a government, general elections will be held in early 2009, 18 months ahead of schedule.

There are currently 11 other parties serving in the Knesset that Kadima could potentially choose as coalition partners. Livni must assemble a group of parties holding a total of at least 61 out of the 120 seats in the Knesset in order to form a governing coalition.

If able to form a coalition government in the allotted six weeks, she will become the next prime minister of Israel and will be responsible for overseeing negotiations with the Palestinian Authority.

If Kadima is not able to form a coalition government under Livni, it will face general elections in early 2009 and competition with what recent polls suggest is an increasingly popular Likud, under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu.

PUTTING TOGETHER A COALITION

According to analysts, Livni is expected to attempt to form a government roughly along the lines of her predecessor, Ehud Olmert, and the recent signing of a preliminary agreement between Kadima and Labor, the Knesset's second-largest party, paves the way for such a coalition to be formed, with one or more of a handful of smaller, Zionist parties joining to form a majority. This would include the religious parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, which demand a pledge from Livni to refuse to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority over the status of Jerusalem in exchange for their participation in the government.

Likud, Yisrael Beitenu and National Union-NRP - right-wing parties that oppose negotiations with the Palestinian Authority - have declined to join a Kadima-led coalition, and instead favor general elections that polls predict will bring the Likud party under Benjamin Netanyahu back into power. Netanyahu opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state. Instead, he has outlined a plan that would leave Palestinians with little more than a series of disconnected Bantustans, while leaving Israel in control of most West Bank land.

WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR THE PEACE PROCESS

Most analysts predict that if able to form a government, Livni will lead a coalition so unstable that any real progress in negotiations with the Palestinians will be unlikely. Given the near doubling of the rate of Israeli settlement construction in the past year, further shrinking the land base for a future Palestinian state, this leads many to question the viability of the two-state solution. As Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas recently noted in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece, "...if we do not succeed, and succeed soon, the parameters of the debate are apt to shift dramatically. Israel's continued settlement expansion and land confiscation in the West Bank makes physical separation of our two peoples increasingly impossible."

If as Prime Minister, Livni is unable or unwilling to halt Israeli settlement expansion and exchange land for peace with the Palestinians, she and future Israeli leaders will be faced with a stark choice - continued apartheid with one set of laws for Jewish settlers in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and one for the Palestinians living under Israeli military occupation or granting equal rights to all those who live under Israeli rule regardless of religion. Many of Livni's policy positions leave Palestinians pessimistic about the prospects for peace under a Livni administration.

THE MAIN PLAYERS

Descriptions of the 12 parties currently serving in the Knesset, including the number of seats they hold, follow:

The Zionist Parties

Kadima
29 seats

Kadima's platform indicates an acceptance of the Roadmap for Peace, the need for territorial compromise and a negotiated agreement to establish an independent Palestinian state. However, the actions of the Israeli government since Kadima came to power suggest the intention to retain control of as much Palestinian land as possible. Read more.

Labor-Meimad
19 seats

Labor's platform closely resembles that of Kadima with regard to the peace process. Labor also mentions the need for a return to the Roadmap for Peace, yet supports unilateral action that would allow Israel to retain control of the Palestinian land on which its major settlement blocs, housing roughly 87 percent of Israel's settler population, sit. Read more.

Likud
12 seats

Likud rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state. It insists on completing the separation wall and maintaining Israeli control over most of the Occupied Palestinian West Bank, including East Jerusalem, the main settlement blocs, the Jordan Valley and Judean Desert - relegating Palestinians to a series of disconnected Bantustans. Read more.

Shas
12 seats
Shas, the Knesset's largest religious-Zionist party, is guided by the controversial Rabbi Ovadia Yosef and opposes any negotiations over the status of Occupied East Jerusalem. It has conditioned its participation in a Livni government on her pledge not to engage in such negotiations, effectively forestalling progress in Palestinian/Israeli peace talks. Read more.

Yisrael Beitenu
11 seats

Yisrael Beiteinu is headed by the controversial Moldovian-born Avigdor Lieberman who has advocated the forced expulsion of Israel's Palestinian citizens. The party is primarily driven by a desire to cleanse Israel of as many non-Jews as possible. Its main support comes from recent immigrants from areas of the former Soviet Union. Read more.

National Union-NRP
9 seats

The National Union-NRP platform rejects the return of any of the Occupied Territories. It opposes the creation of a Palestinian state on territory between Israel and Jordan. Instead, the party promotes active Jewish settlement of all the Occupied Territories and mass expulsion of Palestinians. Read more.

Gil Pensioners Party
7 seats

Party leader Rafi Eitan, a former top Mossad operative, is considered by the United States as a co-conspirator in the Jonathan Pollard spy case. In September 2008 he declared in an interview with a German magazine that Israel should kidnap Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Read more.
United Torah Judaism
6 seats

As the Knesset's third-largest religious-Zionist party, United Torah Judaism has made clear that it supports Shas' position that entering a coalition with Kadima will require a pledge from Tzipi Livni to freeze negotiations with the Palestinian Authority over the status of Jerusalem. Read more.

Meretz-Yachad
5 seats

Formed in 1992, Meretz-Yachad favors a peace agreement with the Palestinians along the lines of the Geneva Initiative, which would allow Israel to retain control of its three largest West Bank settlement blocs and give Israel veto power over Palestinian refugees' right of return. Read more.


The Non-Zionist Parties


United Arab List-Ta'al
4 seats

The United Arab List-Ta'al calls for an end to the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, a halt to the expropriation of Palestinian land, equal rights for non-Jews in Israel, preservation and protection of Muslim religious sites, and the right of return for Palestinian refugees. Read more.

Hadash
3 seats

Hadash is a coalition of Arab and Jewish political groups based around the Communist Party. It stresses social justice and equality, as well as recognition and cultural integration of the Palestinian minority. Hadash also urges investment in schools, urban rehabilitation, government transparency, freedom of information, and environmental protection. Read more.

National Democratic Assembly (Balad)
3 seats

The National Democratic Assembly party ('Balad' is the Hebrew acronym) seeks to transform Israel into a democratic, secular state in which Christians, Muslims, and Jews enjoy equal rights. Balad aims to eliminate state institutions and laws that discriminate against Palestinian citizens in Israel. Read more.