This article was originally published by bitterlemons.org and is republished with permission.

Palestinians attend rally against the Israeli blockade at the Erez terminal between Israel and Gaza. (Hatem Omar, Maan Images)

Contrary to the expectations of many analysts, the ceasefire that was agreed in June between Hamas in Gaza and Israel and lasted longer than any other ceasefire since the establishment of the Palestinian Authority, has been facing serious difficulties in recent weeks.

The past month witnessed a return to violence that included rocket fire from Gaza at Israeli areas and Israeli air raids and shelling that left many casualties on the Palestinian side, in addition to the tight blockade Israel has imposed that has seen only four shipments of humanitarian goods reach Gaza since November 4.

Why does a ceasefire that lasted successfully for five months face these problems only a month before it was due to end or be extended? The answer would seem rooted mainly in domestic Israeli politics and to a lesser extent in Gaza. This is primarily because Israel is the determining factor in deciding the state of relations with Gaza, whether peaceful or violent. Hamas, furthermore, has benefitted from the ceasefire and is clearly interested in renewing it, particularly because the calm enabled the Islamist movement to consolidate its power in Gaza.

There have been many criticisms in Israel of the ceasefire, particularly from the right of the political spectrum, but also from a much wider sector in Israel that, for emotional reasons, opposed a ceasefire when an Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, remained captive in Gaza. One of the main criticisms leveled at the Israeli government is that it entered into a ceasefire with what, in Israeli terminology, is a "terrorist organization". But there were also strong arguments that the ceasefire simply enabled Hamas to improve its military capabilities and thus prepare for the next round of fighting. In addition, the ceasefire did not secure the release of Shalit nor did it put sufficient pressure on Hamas to continue negotiations over a prisoner exchange.

Thus there are two main reasons for the current return to violence. The first is that Israel, which also has an interest in the ceasefire, wants to change the terms of any renewed deal. Israel wants two things from an extended deal. First is either the release of Shalit in the context of a prisoner exchange, or, at least, a resumption of negotiations over such an exchange.

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Secondly, the Egypt-Gaza border, which is neither regulated to allow Israel to hold Egypt responsible for any possible breaches, nor closed, is proving a major irritation to Israel and the country will want some measure of order at Rafah.

The other reason that the ceasefire is currently shaky has to do with the forthcoming elections in Israel. Ehud Barak, the current defense minister, is himself running for the highest office and is trying to use (or abuse) his current position to improve his public standing. Hence the increase in tension that might go so far as, but no further, than a limited military operation that would harm Hamas militarily but not involve the kind of engagement that could lead to dramatic failure. Such a limited but serious operation should also ensure better terms for Israel in a renewed ceasefire deal.

Nevertheless, it is Hamas that finds itself in a win-win situation in such a scenario. Although an Israeli military operation will harm Hamas militarily it will benefit the movement politically by ensuring Palestinian and Arab sympathy for the movement. This in turn will embarrass the Palestinian Authority and other Arab regimes, which will find themselves obliged to express sympathy with Hamas and call for an end to such attacks. It is for these reasons that many leaders from the Arab world have been trying to intercede with the Israeli leadership to prevent any Israeli military adventure.

Ghassan Khatib is coeditor of the bitterlemons family of internet publications. He is vice-president of Birzeit University and a former Palestinian Authority minister of planning. He holds a PhD in Middle East politics from the University of Durham.