Palestinians protest the separation wall at a rally near the West Bank village of Azzun Atma, south of Qalqiliya. (Khaleel Reash, Maan Images)

One of the most important political dynamics in the Middle East these days is the escalating war of words between the United States and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the international demand to freeze Jewish settlements and colonies in Arab lands occupied in 1967. It is surprising yet heartening that the Obama team has come out strongly demanding that Israel freeze the expansion of all settlements, with no exceptions for natural growth, pre-approved projects or anything else.

More unusual has been President Barack Obama's public reiteration of this position, including in the presence of the Israeli prime minister in the White House. The US took this stance one significant step forward a few days ago when it publicly called for the reversal of official Israeli approval for building a new Jewish housing project in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of Arab East Jerusalem.

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Settlements expansion is only one of many core issues comprising the Palestinian-Israeli and Arab-Israeli conflict; yet it has become the litmus test of three critical dynamics that may determine whether this conflict moves toward peaceful resolution or continues to radicalize and destabilize the entire Middle East as it has for over 60 years. These three are US-Israel relations, Israeli compliance with international laws and norms, and the capacity of the Arabs to engage meaningfully in promoting a credible peace process.

Obama has taken a very strong, public position against continued Israeli colonization, probably because he understands that this position enjoys the backing of international law, public opinion in America and every other country in the world, and probably a majority of Israelis themselves who would sacrifice their colonization program for a genuine, lasting, and comprehensive peace agreement with all the Arab neighbors.

If Obama runs into problems with his economic reform and health care programs, the pro-Israeli zealots in the United States might jump on the president's vulnerability to help him inside the US if he backs off pressuring Israel on its colonization ventures. Much of this will depend on how the debate is framed, which raises the second point: Will Israel finally be forced by global pressure to comply with international law and United Nations resolutions, or will it forever decide where it complies and where it defies the rest of the world's sense of right and wrong?

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